4. A Fight for Survival: Climate Change & Conflict

Moving away from last week's focus on the politics of managing water resources, I'd like to consider a more human-geographical approach to the politics of water scarcity. I would like to frame water scarcity as a lived experience and understand specific narratives that link water to climate change, conflict, and violence. It is impossible to talk about hydropolitics in the Sahel without drawing these connections. In this blog post, I will explore how water security affects the agricultural-pastoral conflict between farmers and herders and what international responses exist to resolve these tensions in the region. The figure below foreshadows the potential severity of hydro-political conflict- as you can see much of the Sahel will be quite drastically affected.

Figure 1: Map showing the likelihood of conflict in general across the African continent in 2050

Understanding these relationships begins with the acknowledgment of climate change as a catalyst to water insecurity. The Sahel's temperature averages monthly 35°C and is expected to be 3-5°C warmer by 2050 resulting in erratic rainfall and shorter wet seasons (Pham-Duc et al., 2020). Climate variability severely threatens the hydrological regimes across the Sahel from major river basins to aquifers. In the early 2000s, average annual flows of the major rivers in the region decreased by 30-60% from the 1960s (Ardoin-Bardin, 2004). 

It is understood that water scarcity exacerbated by climate change has wide-ranging consequences on many people, however, I would like to diverge from this to focus on a particular narrative based on pastoral and agricultural production systems. Approximately 80% of Sahelian farmland is degraded due to a lack of water for irrigation and more largely extreme fluctuations between droughts and floods (FAO, 2019). I would like to highlight a specific symbiosis that exists between nomadic herdsmen and farmers in the Sahel that has crumbled profoundly by not just water scarcity, but all of climate change's impacts. Historically, herdsmen across the Sahel migrate south during dry seasons in search of forage and water for their livestock. They are welcomed by farmers who value the livestock fertilizing their croplands and both parties mutually benefit from each other (Brottem, 2016).

However, as droughts increase both spatially and temporally, competition over scarce natural resources and fertile land has led to outright violence and bloodshed in inter-communal conflict between farmers and herdsmen. The Fulani herdsmen of Mali, a telling example, were decimated due to their dependence on transhumance for survival. This duel is a function of local politics and the power relations between these groups. A political decision by the Malian state favored farmers by introducing initiatives to protect food autonomy and modernize agriculture to reduce reliance on the herders (International Crisis Group, 2020). Farmers thrived and generated enough surplus to invest in livestock which led to the complete marginalization of the Fulani nomads. A side effect is the incidence of strong jihadist beliefs amongst these groups which provide a breeding ground for terrorist organizations and increased security threats and conflicts in the region. Today, this competition is worsened by surging population growth pushing farmers to cultivate more crops to meet needs. This in turn comes back to impact water scarcity, as decreased vegetation cover from expanding areas for cultivation promotes runoff and disappearance of surface water sources like river streams and large floodplains (Leyé et al., 2021).

This figure evidences the incidence of water security-related conflict across the African continent. It projects the likelihood of conflict occurring over decreased freshwater availability from climate change and population growth by 2050. Focusing on the Sahel, the likelihood ranges from 30 to 49 percent and over 50% in Sudan which coincides with the Nile River Basin. Mali and Niger are highlighted countries though currently and historically, we are already seeing the rapid surge of violence.

Solutions to address water scarcity in the Sahel must holistically encompass the dimensions of climate change as a catalyst and violence consequently. In Central Sahel, climate commitments are often futile due to a lack of finance and coordination. In light, of COP26 in Glasgow that is currently occurring, there seems to be hope to collectively target climate change, water security, conflict, and more. An investment program by the UN’s International Fund for Agricultural Development and the Green Climate Fund to restore the 'Great Green Wall' ecosystems in the Sahel seems promising (IFAD, 2021). The USD$143 million investment is an example of the perceived significance from the international community to create a new generation of climate-resilient farmers and rural communities. Though it seeks to address climate-related agriculture risks at every stage, there is yet to be an explicit mention of understanding the community-level narrative of the nomads and farmers and addressing these power relations imbalances. Moreover, a link to water scarcity and water resources management is absent from the climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are absent. Finally, it needs to take strides towards promoting regional and international cooperation as just like the water resources in the Sahel, the impact of climate change and water scarcity are also transboundary.